Enrollment projections show an 11-year drop

By Maureen Robertson

Enrollment in Ramona’s public schools peaked at 7,271 students in 2001-02 and has declined every year since.

Ramona Unified officials predict that trend will continue in the 2013-14 school year, when they expect 5,712 students — 153 fewer than this year.

“If you think about it, we’ve declined about a high school number of kids,” Assistant Superintendent David Ostermann told school trustees recently.

The district expects Ramona High School will have 1,635 students next year. Including 2013-14 projections, the total enrollment decline since 2001-02 is 1,559 students.

Ostermann calls enrollment a key to district finances, since Ramona Unified receives about 70 percent of its income from ADA, or average daily attendance.

“Enrollment projections are the foundation upon which a school district builds its budget and the tool used to project future revenues,” he said in his report to trustees. “In formulating a budget, enrollment projections are the basis for determining a district’s largest expenditure, the staffing of its schools.”

They also determine the amount budgeted for other school needs such as supplies and transportation.

Considering the $5,200 per student the district receives in ADA, the projected drop in enrollment means a revenue loss of about $795,000, said Ostermann. In addition to ADA money, the district receives money for specific programs such as special education, support for low-income students, vocational education, and after-school programs.

The district will update enrollment projections as it receives more information from school principals and other sources, said Ostermann, “but nobody can tell us what our actual enrollment’s going to be until August when they show up.”

According to projections for each school, the largest drop will be at Ramona High and Olive Peirce Middle School, where, respectively, 52 and 30 fewer students are expected. In past years, the largest decline has been in the elementary schools.

Related posts:

  1. Enrollment continues to drop
  2. Enrollment drops below 6,000 students
  3. School enrollment continues to drop
  4. School numbers continue to drop
  5. School district OKs $49.6M budget

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Posted by Maureen Robertson on Mar 6 2013. Filed under Featured Story, News, Ramona, Schools. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

8 Comments for “Enrollment projections show an 11-year drop”

  1. Huh

    Hey at least the superintendent still makes $250K a year!!!!

  2. TakeCareOfBIZ

    so why is there still 6 elementary schools open? Why are 6th gradeers going to OPMS instead of elementary schools? Why is the district bent on taking money awat from those the provide the education instead of running the district like a business? Shut down unneeded schools, sell off property, cut wasted moneis spent on an overpaid, pompous superintendent. The same superintendent that I hear is looking for a new job.

  3. Jane Tanaka MD

    Maureen–If one were to graph decrease in number of students vs year, or percent decrease vs year over the last 11 years, when was there the steepest drop? After the Cedar Fire? After the Witch Creek Fire? Or after the beginning of the Great Recession? Just curious.

  4. Jane Tanaka MD

    Great… thank you Big Bird and Maureen. The Witchcreek Fire and the start of the Great Recession were within a year of each other. So… next question… and maybe a realtor in the community can answer this… How many many families left due to fear of another wildfire , after the Witch Creek Fire? vs How many families left due to job factors ( too far away to commute to work, or due to inability to find work within a reasonable distance from Ramona)? vs How many families walked away from their houses because of debt, and they have relocated to a more affordable region of the US?

  5. Jane Tanaka MD

    Speaking to parents who are realtors in Ramona, it seems that the fires didnt dissuade people from moving her or staying here. People go tired of the commute to work down the hill, as gas prices went up. They wanted less time on the road and more time with their kids . They opted to give up the country lifestyle for pragmatic time management and fuel costs. Also one parent stated he is moving down the hill because his child would get a better education there. .. he compared the AP test scores and made the decision, especially due to anticipated cuts in Honors and AP classes due to the budget deficit in Ramona

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